Britain’s present wave of Covid-19 instances seems to be peaking at a decrease degree than earlier outbreaks of the Omicron variant of the illness, researchers have revealed.
The information is encouraging – although scientists have additionally warned {that a} additional wave of the illness may sweep the nation earlier than the top of the 12 months. “We have to be vigilant and monitor the information with nice care, on a regular basis,” mentioned Professor Mark Woolhouse, of Edinburgh College.
In response to final week’s ONS survey, Covid case numbers have flattened out or are falling in 5 of 9 English areas, in addition to in Northern Eire and Scotland. On the similar time, youngsters now have the bottom prevalence of the illness for some weeks.
And whereas instances are nonetheless rising in 50-69 12 months olds, there was a fall in prevalence amongst over-70s. “Hopefully that can quickly be mirrored by a fall in hospitalisations,” added Woolhouse.
But when the short-term prospects of avoiding a brand new wave of Covid-19 instances look pretty promising, longer-term forecasts are much less reassuring due to the uncertainties concerned. “The issue is that we’ve now obtained a soup of round 300 Covid-19 variants in existence,” mentioned Professor Andrew Lee, of Sheffield College. “On the similar time, completely different populations have gotten various ranges of immunity to Covid-19. That makes it actually tough to foretell how future waves are going to behave.”
Scientists have additionally warned that the nation faces the prospect of a parallel flu epidemic this winter, one which could possibly be fuelled by low immunity ranges in a inhabitants that has misplaced safety throughout Covid pandemic restrictions. This was raised final week when it was revealed that flu instances had climbed in England – although ranges are comparatively low total.
Nonetheless, these fears have been tempered by Professor Francois Balloux, of College Faculty London. “The one piece of excellent information is that the flu vaccine that’s now being given seems to be very well matched to the strains which have begun to flow into within the inhabitants. Which means it ought to present good safety and maintain down hospitalisations.”
Predictions about future outbreaks of illnesses like Covid or flu wanted to be handled with care, added Woolhouse. “This time final 12 months, once we had fairly excessive ranges of the Delta variant of Covid-19, knowledgeable after knowledgeable predicted actually large waves of the illness would sweep Britain within the autumn. And it by no means occurred.”
As an alternative, the nation was struck by a very new variant, Omicron, which affected unprecedented numbers of individuals final winter. New sub-variants of Omicron have since appeared and these are circulating with one model, Omicron BA 2.75.2, being considered as a severe potential menace. “Nonetheless, it’s nonetheless comparatively uncommon within the UK,” added Woolhouse.
Nonetheless, scientists settle for that the chance of a very new variant, one with extreme pathogenic impacts, may seem at any time. “So long as Covid stays gentle for most individuals, and doesn’t overwhelm well being methods, governments will be capable of trip the wave,” added Lee. “But when we get a extra pathogenic, extreme variant then that can dictate a really completely different response. And that is still a threat, doubtless.”
Balloux mentioned the prospect of a deadly new variant showing stays scientists’ biggest concern about Covid and would require fixed surveillance by well being authorities and medical doctors, he informed the Observer. “Nonetheless, until one thing horrible occurs and a lethal new variant seems, I feel when it comes to Covid, issues needs to be higher than final winter and the winter earlier than,” he mentioned.
